Who promised us flying cars?
Techno-optimism and the "three vehicles problem”
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Peter Thiel’s censure of Silicon Valley has become a familiar refrain: “We wanted flying cars; instead we got 140 characters.”
That was 2013. Ten years later, 140 characters have grown to 280 (wow), and a number of manufacturers have built flying cars that are close to receiving federal certification (okay, wow).
But who promised us flying cars? And why exactly does flying car = the future we were promised?
Twitter provides one answer:
The full newspaper ad comes with a caption:
Your personal “flying carpet!” Step into it, press a button, and off you go to market, to a friend’s home, or to your job. Take off and land anywhere. Plug in to any electric outlet for recharging. They’re working on it!
Yes—in 1959, referring to all-electric, flying cars, America’s Independent Electric Light and Power Company told readers, “They’re working on it!” (Beyond the scope of the ad: who exactly they were.)
The LA Times wasn’t alone; this kind of techno-optimistic messaging was pervasive in the 1950s and 1960s. No piece of media captured the zeitgeist better than the television series The Jetsons. Americans saw the future through the eyes of George, Jane, Judy, and Elroy. Flying cars were front and center.
Source: YouTube
The Jetsons showed us that technology was going to make life wonderful. Daily life, including the morning commute, would be fun and effortless. This was a powerful idea, and it can be traced back to World War II.
Imagine living through the Great Depression and along comes a second world war. The fighting abroad was devastating, but Americans found that back home their world was changing—for the better. New technologies provided them with something: distraction, entertainment, hope?
Scientist and author J. Storrs Hall outlines some of those technological advances.
The wartime years saw the invention or major development of jets, radar, helicopters, antibiotics, DDT, portable radios, and computers. The aerospace industry quadrupled in size. Surely, once the war was over all this science, technology, and production could work to the purpose of improving ordinary lives. (Storrs Hall, J.. Where Is My Flying Car? (p. 15). Stripe Press.)
Aviation technology in particular was having a moment. Bombers played an outsize role in winning the war for the Allied powers, and American’s fascination with flying was reaching new heights. Aircraft manufacturer Cessna capitalized on this sentiment with a number of ads promising a transition from wartime to a peaceful, prosperous, and exciting future.
And the future, according to Cessna, meant flying cars. Here is their full-page ad in a 1942 issue of Flying Magazine [1].
Source: eBay listing
Piper, another storied American aircraft manufacturer, ran similar ads during that time. But neither company ever built a flying car, at least not in the way we think of them today. Most of their efforts were dedicated to building an affordable, private plane.
Planes don’t really do it though, do they? An ideal flying car should be able to take off and land in your home’s driveway or on your office building’s rooftop, like a helicopter.
If it can’t do that, a flying car should at least solve the “three vehicles problem.”
Why can’t we simply consider a private plane to be a flying car? The obvious answer is that it’s not a car. Rather, it doesn’t solve the “three vehicles problem.” You still need a car to drive to an airport to fly your plane, and once you arrive at a new airport you need yet another car to get to your final destination. (Storrs Hall, J.. Where Is My Flying Car? (p. 44). Stripe Press.)
For the sake of brevity, I’ll omit many of the impressive attempts to solve this problem over the past 80 or so years. But to summarize, nobody quite cracked it.
Recent phenomena—namely mobile ride-hailing and the broader paradigm of mobility-as-a-service—have made the “three vehicles problem” less important. Thanks to Uber, Lyft, and other services that have cropped up since 2011, owning a car or being your own driver has become less attractive, and in some cities, it’s completely unnecessary. We all carry in our pockets 24/7, on-demand access to a vehicle.
Now take MaaS and add electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. These quiet, emissions-free aircraft are made possible by (a) powerful, electric motors, (b) lightweight and energy-dense lithium-ion batteries, and (c) distributed electric propulsion, among other innovations. Combined, we get an aircraft that is quiet, affordable, and in some cases, gorgeous.
Soon, a long flight can begin or end with a short ride on a quiet, emissions-free eVTOL. No more rental car desks, freeway traffic, or filling up your tank right before returning the car. Reserving a quiet, electric, air taxi is an elegant way around the “three vehicles problem”—and it feels a lot like the future we were promised.
Source: Midnight Production eVTOL Aircraft Reveal Film (November 2022)
Some eVTOL manufacturers have completed extensive testing, and the FAA has taken several steps down the path of licensing and certification. But how close are we to being able to board a flying car? The precise timeline is still soft, but we’re certainly close. Subscribe below and we’ll figure this out together.
[1] Upon close inspection, you’ll find some outdated, xenophobic language in the ad copy, which is uncomfortable to read. My purpose in sharing this antique image is solely to highlight historical attitudes toward technology, and is not an endorsement of any language in the ad.
Excited to see these promises realized!! Great article, thank you.
Fantastic article, Robert! And I appreciate the disclaimer about the uncomfortable language in the ad. Overall, great explanation of the field.